Trends are such that even if you give up on me, it doesn't prevent me from becoming more and more popular.
It has been a year since Tesla announced the abandonment of silicon carbide, and the market has not been abandoned. Instead, the development of the third-generation semiconductors represented by GaN and SiC has attracted much attention: Yole data shows that the GaN market size is expected to reach 672 million US dollars by 2026. The global SiC power semiconductor market size in 2027 is expected to break through 6 billion US dollars.
Forecasts are not as good as the calculations of the heavens, and the advantages of the third-generation semiconductors have been discussed over and over again, and the market feedback is the most real and cruel - very popular but not mainstream.
01
Can silicon carbide and new energy vehicles soar together?
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New energy is an important driving force for the application of the third-generation semiconductors. The biggest feature and "concern" of new energy vehicles is charging. Car companies build their own super charging piles to lead the industry into the era of fast charging, and the proportion of high-power charging piles is gradually increasing.
How much is the volume? In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were completed at 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, with an increase of 35.8% and 37.9% respectively year-on-year, and it is predicted that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 will reach about 11.5 million vehicles, an increase of about 20%.
This number accounts for one-third of the automotive market.
The application of silicon carbide is on the DC charging pile. The most concerned issues for electric vehicle consumers are the driving range and charging time. Based on this, improving the charging speed of the charging pile is urgent.According to Huawei's estimation, to achieve fast charging within 5 minutes, the charging pile power needs to evolve towards 480 kW. To adapt to the future development trend of high-power high-voltage fast charging, mainstream car companies and charging operators have started to deploy high-power fast charging piles. For example, in the bidding for the State Grid's fast charging piles, the proportion of 80 kW charging piles has decreased from 63% in 2020 to 37% in 2022, while 160 kW and 240 kW have increased from 35% and 1% to 57% and 4% respectively, and have begun to deploy 480 kW high-power fast charging piles. In addition, the maximum charging power of GAC Aion's A480 super charging pile also reaches 480 kW.
Silicon carbide can solve this problem. Under the trend of high-voltage fast charging, the use of silicon carbide devices can effectively solve the current urgent need for charging pile equipment to adopt new devices that are more resistant to high voltage, high temperature, and safe, reducing costs and increasing efficiency to achieve fast charging of electric vehicles. From the perspective of efficiency, SiC MOSFET and diode products rely on their characteristics of high voltage resistance, high temperature resistance, and fast switching frequency, which can be well used in charging pile modules. Compared with traditional silicon-based devices, silicon carbide modules can increase the output power of the charging pile by nearly 30% and reduce losses by about 50%. At the same time, the radiation resistance of silicon carbide devices can also enhance the stability of the charging pile. From the perspective of cost: the excellent properties of silicon carbide can effectively improve the power density per unit, reduce the volume of the module, and simplify the circuit design, which is crucial for reducing the cost of charging pile products.
In China's new energy passenger car insurance, the application of silicon carbide is gradually penetrating to models below 250,000 yuan, with models using silicon carbide mainly including BYD, Geely, NIO, and XPeng, according to NE Times data, new models such as Zhiji, Wending M9, and Li have been added; BYD models mainly include Han, Tang EV, Seal, Yangwang U8, Tengshi D9, Tengshi N8, Tengshi N7 with 800V architecture, most of which are dual-motor control models; Geely models and price segments are widely distributed, including models such as Jiqi 001/X/007, Polestar 2, Volvo XC40/C40, smart spirit #1#3, Lotus ELETRE, etc.; most of NIO's models use silicon carbide, mainly for the 400V platform; XPeng models G6, G9, and X9 use silicon carbide.
When Fei Jin Semiconductor Deputy Director Yuan Jian was analyzing the silicon carbide market, he mentioned that the market penetration rate of the 800V platform will steadily increase, and it is expected to account for 13% by 2025, which will further increase the application scale of silicon carbide; the current OBC market is mainly 6.6KW, and it is expected that 6.6KW will still account for 57.2% by 2025; the market share of 11KW OBC will increase year by year, and the market share will increase from 9% to 18%. The global market is expected to exceed 6 billion US dollars in 2027, with downstream automotive applications accounting for more than 75%. The industry concentration of global silicon carbide manufacturers is relatively high, with the top five manufacturers holding 70% of the market share. The rise of China's silicon carbide industry has relatively obvious competitive advantages in the upstream substrate industry.
In addition, in the photovoltaic energy storage market, the demand for power density increases, and there is an opportunity for MPPT switch tubes to switch from IGBT to SiC. Energy storage systems have bidirectional power conversion requirements, and the opportunities for SiC increase. The proportion of hybrid modules on the inverter side (IGBT+SIC Diode) is gradually increasing. In the new energy automobile market, the market penetration rate of the 800V platform will steadily increase, and it is expected to account for 13% by 2025, which will further increase the application scale of silicon carbide; the current OBC market is mainly 6.6KW, and it is expected that 6.6KW will still account for 57.2% by 2025; the market share of 11KW OBC will increase year by year, and the market share will increase from 9% to 18%; the new energy automobile market is the main incremental market for silicon carbide applications, with an expected share of more than 75%, and will further increase in the future. The report shared Fei Jin Semiconductor's silicon carbide MOSFET product solutions, as well as the third-generation 750V/55mohm silicon carbide MOSFET, the third-generation 1200V/40mohm silicon carbide MOSFET, and Gen4 1200V single-core high-current silicon carbide diode, Gen3+ 1200V 20/30A silicon carbide diode, etc.
New energy vehicles can fly, and so can silicon carbide.
02
The real leader that can take off is the leading goose.
STMicroelectronics is a world-renowned IDM analog chip manufacturer and has been actively promoting silicon carbide business. China is a major market for silicon carbide and has cooperated with San'an Optoelectronics to promote silicon carbide business and expand SiC device manufacturing capabilities. On June 4, STMicroelectronics officially announced that the company has signed a long-term supply agreement for silicon carbide (SiC) devices with Geely Automobile Group, further accelerating the cooperation of silicon carbide devices on the basis of the original cooperation. According to the agreement, STMicroelectronics will provide SiC power devices for several brands of high-end pure electric vehicles under Geely Automobile, helping Geely to improve the performance of electric vehicles, speed up charging, extend the driving range, and deepen the transformation of new energy vehicles.Geely Automobile Group's electric drive inverter has adopted the third-generation SiC MOSFET devices from STMicroelectronics. The electric drive inverter is the core of the electric drive system, and silicon carbide MOSFET can comprehensively improve the energy efficiency of the electric drive inverter. Combining advanced inverter design with high-efficiency power semiconductors such as SiC can achieve excellent performance in electric vehicles.
At the same time, STMicroelectronics has advanced SiC production technology and a fully vertically integrated supply chain. In the automotive field, STMicroelectronics' SiC products are widely used in traction inverters, onboard chargers (OBC), DC-DC converters, charging piles, and electric compressor applications, which can greatly improve the performance, energy efficiency, and range of new energy vehicles. In addition, STMicroelectronics is also cooperating with more well-known Chinese car manufacturers, industrial customers, and solution providers in the field of SiC to jointly accelerate the process of China's electrification industry.
Hao Xin, the technical director of Infineon Technologies China Co., Ltd., said, "Infineon's SiC MOSFET technology innovation accelerates the transformation of application fields." Infineon officially launched the first generation of trench gate SiC MOSFET, CoolSiC MOSFET G1, in 2017. In CoolSiC MOSFET G1, Infineon used the trench gate design to solve the reliability problem of the gate oxide in SiC MOSFET and overcame the common limitations of SiC MOSFET in control and driving, which accelerated the pace of SiC MOSFET on the vehicle.
In the second-generation product, Infineon maintained the high reliability of the first-generation product while ensuring the improvement of cost-effectiveness. At the same time, new robustness functions were added to the G2 product to maximize the utilization rate of investment in SiC power systems. According to the product portfolio provided by Infineon, industrial-grade 650V and 1200V discrete SiC MOSFET products based on G2 have been launched, as well as automotive-grade 750V and 1200V power module products. In addition, industrial-grade 400V discrete SiC MOSFET based on G2, and automotive-grade 650V and 1200V power modules will also be launched soon.
Infineon has also completed the acquisition of GaN Systems, and there will be more development in the fields of gallium nitride and silicon carbide in the future. Infineon Technologies announced on October 24, 2023, that it has completed the acquisition of GaN Systems and claims to "become a leading gallium nitride company."
At present, Infineon has 450 gallium nitride technology experts and more than 350 gallium nitride technology patent families. Infineon stated that the company and GaN Systems complement each other in intellectual property, deep understanding of applications, and mature customer project planning, which has created very favorable conditions for Infineon to meet the needs of various rapidly growing applications.
Wang Junyue, Deputy Director of Market Strategy for Anshi Semiconductor's SiC products, also said that the Chinese SiC device market is growing rapidly, and the market opportunities are in China. For the silicon carbide discrete device market, there are corresponding demands for performance, reliability, price, and supply chain.
03
The more you fight, the healthier you areCurrently, compared to silicon carbide, gallium nitride seems to have fewer applications. However, with the advent of fast charging, gallium nitride has also "declared war" on silicon carbide.
Under the impetus of technological upgrades, GaN has transcended the limitations of being only suitable for fast charging and other consumer electronics markets, and has continued to make breakthroughs in the automotive, data center, and rapidly developing hot fields.
Compared with traditional silicon materials, power devices made from GaN materials have higher power density output and higher energy conversion efficiency. They can also miniaturize and lighten the system, effectively reducing the volume and weight of power electronic devices, thereby greatly reducing the production cost of the system.
For radio frequency and switching power supply equipment, it is clear that the performance of both SiC and GaN materials is superior to that of pure silicon. Their high critical field allows these devices to operate at higher voltages and lower leakage currents. High electron mobility and electron saturation speed allow for higher operating frequencies. However, SiC has a higher electron mobility than Si, and GaN has a higher electron mobility than SiC, which means that gallium nitride should ultimately become the best material for very high frequency devices.
In addition, a high thermal conductivity coefficient means that the material has an advantage in more effectively conducting heat. SiC has a higher thermal conductivity than GaN and Si, which means that SiC devices can theoretically operate at higher power densities than GaN or Si. When high power is a key ideal device feature, SiC semiconductors with high thermal conductivity, wide bandgap, and high critical field have certain advantages. The relatively poor thermal conductivity of GaN poses a challenge for system designers in managing the heat of gallium nitride devices.
The competition and complementarity between the third-generation semiconductors continue to bring the stage closer.
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